Unfortunate outcome in the Philly & Colts Games. I apologize to those of you who may have decided to go with me on those games...Now that the days games are just about over, I wanted to take a chance to highlight a few things that I found Rather interesting about Week 11 in the NFL. To Reiterate...
What I meant by different was that you would start to see a higher number of favourites cover this week. This is why I decided to focus my selections today on the favourites instead of the dogs. Weeks like today are also the reason I have stated in the past that just because I may many of the games are rigged it does not mean...you should go against the public every week. It was truly was the kind of day where square plays werent so square after all....
11 out of 16 dogs in Week 10 covered....
However in Week 11, a slight difference occured where 9 out of 16
7 favourites covered, with only dogs covering the number
One of the differences between Week 10 and 11 that stands out is the presence of Popular Dogs getting at least 40 percent of the juice. And all the more these dogs seemed to have several things in common...which include the fact that they were either coming off wins or strong performances the week before and had been gaining the respect of the betting public.
St Louis
NY Jets
Cleveland
Green Bay
Over the course of the week the percentage of action these dogs got increased dramatically. At some sportsbooks, the Rams were receiving a higher percentage than the Panthers which is something that tends to happen when favourites cover however this is not always the case. When dogs like these start to receive over 40 percent of the action, the books and more importantly the Syndicate are no longer concerned about making their share on the game...because the action is evening out give or take 15 percent. Now obviously if the action was Lop-Sided toward the favourites in those games, the Syndicate would have been very concerned about what possible losses they could endure had the favourites covered. Fortunately for them, this wasn't the case because given that the action was so evenly distributed, the Casinos made their profit regardless of who won the game...
** You will often find that in these kinds of games, the flow of the game will be natural. There will be less flags and less blown calls. The Coaching will be efficient. There are seldom mistakes made on behalf of the Referees, Coaches and Players in games like these because the teams are left to their own devices. They will rise to their "true" potential and you will be astounded that the very team who could not cover against a lowly Oakland team weeks before can now score at will to win on the road against a better competitor in the Cleveland Browns...
Pitt 24 - Cleveland 20
Now take a look at some of the dogs who did cover this weekend and consider what the percentages were on the game as well as the perceptions the public had of the teams involved...
Buffalo 24, Houston 21
Cincinnati 31, New Orleans 16
Kansas City 17, Oakland 13
San Francisco 20, Seattle 14
San Diego 35, Denver 27
Dallas 21, Indianapolis 14
You will notice that in each of these games, the perception the public had of certain teams determined what the percentages were which in quite a few cases were quite Lop-Sided. The KC & Seattle games being prime examples. Earlier in the week, Denver was seeing as much as 60 percent likely to do the history and past perceptions the public had of San Diegos performances at Mile High. When a game like that which featured the perverbial Trap Line gets a favourite getting that much action...watch out. Had Seattle & KC won and covered...what would the ramifications be for the House? Disasterous to say the least. Indy sat at about 80 percent all week. Had they covered what would the ramifications be for the House in that scenario? Not very good.
In all of these games, the favourite was seeing at least 60 percent & above sans the Denver game which started to see heavy money on the Chargers toward kick off. And in all of these games the dog ended up covering....How convenient for the House...Meanwhile in the games which saw more evenly divided action, the favourites managed to cover...in particular...
New England 35 - Green Bay 0
Chicago 10 - NY Jets 0
Carolina 15 - St Louis 0
These games featured some of the more Popular Dogs on the board this week. The media was coming down very hard on New England thanks to their "loss" to the Jets the week before while the Chicago hype had died down quite a bit since the Miami loss. Meanwhile, St Louis had been quite the talk among bettors as being a likely candidate for an upset this week. There can be no doubt that the performances of the Jets, Rams, & Green Bay had a direct influence on the perception the public now had of those teams in Week 11...Carolina, New England & Chicago were all receiving less than 60 percent of the action at the beginning of the week which is likely because of the bettors immediate reactions following their Sunday performances...
* When a favourite is getting less than 60 percent of the action, the Casinos are no as concerned about "WHO THEY NEED" on that particular game because either way they are going to make money on that game...This is what you want to see happen when betting on a favourite...
The public was stunned after Chicago's loss to Miami and they were probably just as shell shocked over the Pats loss to the Jets. The Panther game against the Bucs last Monday night was not dominant and because the Rams still get public money thanks to their Kurt Warner days, the ideal situation in regard to favourites was present in each of those teams games this past weekend...The Rams as well as the Jets & Green Bay ended up getting over 40 percent of the action on these games thus evening out the percentages and garnering Even Keel Action...If the favourites covered in these games as they indeed did, the House is not going to get destroyed...they in fact will not take a huge loss and may end up even or slightly just below that which is fine because they Casino will make back that money on the games that featured Lop Sided Action toward one team as was the case in the Indy & KC games....
*If you are somebody who believes games are indeed fixed and you are concerened about being on the wrong end of one. Make sure that you do not take a favourite that is getting over 65 percent of the action. But rather stick to the favourites that are getting less than 60 percent because those are the games where the Casino will make their money regardless of the outcome..where as if a favourite like INDY who received over 75 percent of the juice, were to cover, the House would get destroyed and loose a substantial amount money. And as luck would have it, Dallas covered and the House collected...
The following games garnered action that was either evenly distributed, or slightly lop sided which meant the House either made a profit, broke even, or barely lossed money...These games also saw the favourite win.
The following games garnered action that was extremely Lop-Sided and had the favourites covered, the House would have suffered a tremendous loss. These games saw the dog either win or cover.
We must ask ourselves, why is it that the games which garner Lop Sided Action toward one side always seem to have the dog cover? And is it a coincidence that the House always seems to be at the winning side of that percentage? And why is it that in the games which featured teams who were both getting a high percentage of action, the favourites ended up covering? And why is it just a coincidence that the games where we see the favourite cover just happened to also be the games where the regardless of the outcome, House ends up making a profit?
Monday Night
NY Giants @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-3)
Here we have an example of a game where the percentages are not as Lop-Sided toward one side as we see in other games. This is largely because the Giants and the Jaguars are perceived by the public as being both fairly competitive. They are also both coming off loses the previous week. However, despite the favourable opinion the public has of both teams, the Giants seem to be getting the higher percentage (60). This is likely because they have been in the spotlight a lot more this season than Jacksonville has and they also have a bettor record. Now when we look at this game from the Syndicate stand point, how do they benefit if the Giants Loose? Well if the Giants are indeed getting the higher percentage of juice, then this would likely mean a plus profit for the Casinos. How would the Casinos benefit if the Giants Win? They would likely suffer a financial loss given that they are indeed receiving the higher percentage.
Would the Casino/Syndicate suffer a financial loss if Jacksonville were to win and cover? If the Jacksonville is getting a lower percentage of the juice, than the financial loss would fail in comparison to what they stand to loose if the Giants were to win. Really Lop-Sided games feature action to the tune of say 75-80 percent toward one side. The Giants are receiving far less than that at about 61-62 percent. Nevertheless, they are still receving a higher percentage than their opponent..
The public can accept a Giant loss to Chicago as they are considered to be one of best teams in the league, however the public may not be as kind to Jacksonville's recent loss to Houston last week. Especially since this very same Jaguar team absolutely destroyed the Tennessee Titans a week before. The same Titans who defeated the Houston Texans a week before that at home. And yet this Jaguar team could not beat Houston at home? The public is very weary of these interesting anomolies and it is these same nuisances that the Books & the Syndicate count on to hide a potentially easy favourite from the publics eyes...
And given the percentages that have come out on this game it would seem as if Jacksonville is indeed an Unpopular Favourite this week facing what is undoutedly one of the more Popular Dogs on the slate this week in the NY Giants. If the ideal situation for a favourite to cover is that team getting less than 60 percent, then this is indeed one of those opportunities that we should seize in that Jacksonville is getting less than 40 percent of the juice, the rest has gone the other way. This same Jacksonville team walked into Indy back in week 3 and gave them a run for their money and will now face a Giants team, albeit without their #1 starter in Leftwich, who does not have their pass rushers in effect...
Jacksonville -3....is the play
What I meant by different was that you would start to see a higher number of favourites cover this week. This is why I decided to focus my selections today on the favourites instead of the dogs. Weeks like today are also the reason I have stated in the past that just because I may many of the games are rigged it does not mean...you should go against the public every week. It was truly was the kind of day where square plays werent so square after all....
11 out of 16 dogs in Week 10 covered....
However in Week 11, a slight difference occured where 9 out of 16
7 favourites covered, with only dogs covering the number
One of the differences between Week 10 and 11 that stands out is the presence of Popular Dogs getting at least 40 percent of the juice. And all the more these dogs seemed to have several things in common...which include the fact that they were either coming off wins or strong performances the week before and had been gaining the respect of the betting public.
St Louis
NY Jets
Cleveland
Green Bay
Over the course of the week the percentage of action these dogs got increased dramatically. At some sportsbooks, the Rams were receiving a higher percentage than the Panthers which is something that tends to happen when favourites cover however this is not always the case. When dogs like these start to receive over 40 percent of the action, the books and more importantly the Syndicate are no longer concerned about making their share on the game...because the action is evening out give or take 15 percent. Now obviously if the action was Lop-Sided toward the favourites in those games, the Syndicate would have been very concerned about what possible losses they could endure had the favourites covered. Fortunately for them, this wasn't the case because given that the action was so evenly distributed, the Casinos made their profit regardless of who won the game...
** You will often find that in these kinds of games, the flow of the game will be natural. There will be less flags and less blown calls. The Coaching will be efficient. There are seldom mistakes made on behalf of the Referees, Coaches and Players in games like these because the teams are left to their own devices. They will rise to their "true" potential and you will be astounded that the very team who could not cover against a lowly Oakland team weeks before can now score at will to win on the road against a better competitor in the Cleveland Browns...
Pitt 24 - Cleveland 20
Now take a look at some of the dogs who did cover this weekend and consider what the percentages were on the game as well as the perceptions the public had of the teams involved...
Buffalo 24, Houston 21
Cincinnati 31, New Orleans 16
Kansas City 17, Oakland 13
San Francisco 20, Seattle 14
San Diego 35, Denver 27
Dallas 21, Indianapolis 14
You will notice that in each of these games, the perception the public had of certain teams determined what the percentages were which in quite a few cases were quite Lop-Sided. The KC & Seattle games being prime examples. Earlier in the week, Denver was seeing as much as 60 percent likely to do the history and past perceptions the public had of San Diegos performances at Mile High. When a game like that which featured the perverbial Trap Line gets a favourite getting that much action...watch out. Had Seattle & KC won and covered...what would the ramifications be for the House? Disasterous to say the least. Indy sat at about 80 percent all week. Had they covered what would the ramifications be for the House in that scenario? Not very good.
In all of these games, the favourite was seeing at least 60 percent & above sans the Denver game which started to see heavy money on the Chargers toward kick off. And in all of these games the dog ended up covering....How convenient for the House...Meanwhile in the games which saw more evenly divided action, the favourites managed to cover...in particular...
New England 35 - Green Bay 0
Chicago 10 - NY Jets 0
Carolina 15 - St Louis 0
These games featured some of the more Popular Dogs on the board this week. The media was coming down very hard on New England thanks to their "loss" to the Jets the week before while the Chicago hype had died down quite a bit since the Miami loss. Meanwhile, St Louis had been quite the talk among bettors as being a likely candidate for an upset this week. There can be no doubt that the performances of the Jets, Rams, & Green Bay had a direct influence on the perception the public now had of those teams in Week 11...Carolina, New England & Chicago were all receiving less than 60 percent of the action at the beginning of the week which is likely because of the bettors immediate reactions following their Sunday performances...
* When a favourite is getting less than 60 percent of the action, the Casinos are no as concerned about "WHO THEY NEED" on that particular game because either way they are going to make money on that game...This is what you want to see happen when betting on a favourite...
The public was stunned after Chicago's loss to Miami and they were probably just as shell shocked over the Pats loss to the Jets. The Panther game against the Bucs last Monday night was not dominant and because the Rams still get public money thanks to their Kurt Warner days, the ideal situation in regard to favourites was present in each of those teams games this past weekend...The Rams as well as the Jets & Green Bay ended up getting over 40 percent of the action on these games thus evening out the percentages and garnering Even Keel Action...If the favourites covered in these games as they indeed did, the House is not going to get destroyed...they in fact will not take a huge loss and may end up even or slightly just below that which is fine because they Casino will make back that money on the games that featured Lop Sided Action toward one team as was the case in the Indy & KC games....
*If you are somebody who believes games are indeed fixed and you are concerened about being on the wrong end of one. Make sure that you do not take a favourite that is getting over 65 percent of the action. But rather stick to the favourites that are getting less than 60 percent because those are the games where the Casino will make their money regardless of the outcome..where as if a favourite like INDY who received over 75 percent of the juice, were to cover, the House would get destroyed and loose a substantial amount money. And as luck would have it, Dallas covered and the House collected...
The following games garnered action that was either evenly distributed, or slightly lop sided which meant the House either made a profit, broke even, or barely lossed money...These games also saw the favourite win.
The following games garnered action that was extremely Lop-Sided and had the favourites covered, the House would have suffered a tremendous loss. These games saw the dog either win or cover.
We must ask ourselves, why is it that the games which garner Lop Sided Action toward one side always seem to have the dog cover? And is it a coincidence that the House always seems to be at the winning side of that percentage? And why is it that in the games which featured teams who were both getting a high percentage of action, the favourites ended up covering? And why is it just a coincidence that the games where we see the favourite cover just happened to also be the games where the regardless of the outcome, House ends up making a profit?
Monday Night
NY Giants @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-3)
Here we have an example of a game where the percentages are not as Lop-Sided toward one side as we see in other games. This is largely because the Giants and the Jaguars are perceived by the public as being both fairly competitive. They are also both coming off loses the previous week. However, despite the favourable opinion the public has of both teams, the Giants seem to be getting the higher percentage (60). This is likely because they have been in the spotlight a lot more this season than Jacksonville has and they also have a bettor record. Now when we look at this game from the Syndicate stand point, how do they benefit if the Giants Loose? Well if the Giants are indeed getting the higher percentage of juice, then this would likely mean a plus profit for the Casinos. How would the Casinos benefit if the Giants Win? They would likely suffer a financial loss given that they are indeed receiving the higher percentage.
Would the Casino/Syndicate suffer a financial loss if Jacksonville were to win and cover? If the Jacksonville is getting a lower percentage of the juice, than the financial loss would fail in comparison to what they stand to loose if the Giants were to win. Really Lop-Sided games feature action to the tune of say 75-80 percent toward one side. The Giants are receiving far less than that at about 61-62 percent. Nevertheless, they are still receving a higher percentage than their opponent..
The public can accept a Giant loss to Chicago as they are considered to be one of best teams in the league, however the public may not be as kind to Jacksonville's recent loss to Houston last week. Especially since this very same Jaguar team absolutely destroyed the Tennessee Titans a week before. The same Titans who defeated the Houston Texans a week before that at home. And yet this Jaguar team could not beat Houston at home? The public is very weary of these interesting anomolies and it is these same nuisances that the Books & the Syndicate count on to hide a potentially easy favourite from the publics eyes...
And given the percentages that have come out on this game it would seem as if Jacksonville is indeed an Unpopular Favourite this week facing what is undoutedly one of the more Popular Dogs on the slate this week in the NY Giants. If the ideal situation for a favourite to cover is that team getting less than 60 percent, then this is indeed one of those opportunities that we should seize in that Jacksonville is getting less than 40 percent of the juice, the rest has gone the other way. This same Jacksonville team walked into Indy back in week 3 and gave them a run for their money and will now face a Giants team, albeit without their #1 starter in Leftwich, who does not have their pass rushers in effect...
Jacksonville -3....is the play
